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Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Göztepe and Fenerbahçe drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.55 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 40%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Fenerbahçe 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights