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Poisson rates Göztepe at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Göztepe vs Eyüpspor encounter.

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Full Analysis

Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Göztepe have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Göztepe's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Göztepe lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 52% versus Eyüpspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Eyüpspor 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.58 xG and Eyüpspor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.951 / defence 0.702 | Eyüpspor attack 0.919 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.264. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Göztepe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Göztepe's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Göztepe games / 59 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Göztepe 52% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 1.92 | Draw 3.12 | Eyüpspor 6.25. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 40% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

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