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Göztepe and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, as Göztepe and Eyüpspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.82 xG and Eyüpspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Göztepe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against Eyüpspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 55% | Draw 23% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 60%, Eyüpspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.44 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights