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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Göztepe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Başakşehir 4-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.51 xG and Başakşehir 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Başakşehir attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 41% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 34%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Başakşehir 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.33 PPG, Başakşehir 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights