🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat Göztepe 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Göztepe 0-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 2.05 xG and Alanyaspor 0.66 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Göztepe fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against Alanyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Göztepe 68% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 9%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 65%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Göztepe's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights