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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Trabzonspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Trabzonspor 4-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.72 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Trabzonspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 53% | Draw 24% | Trabzonspor 22%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.81 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights