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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Samsunspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Samsunspor 3-2 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.67 xG and Samsunspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Samsunspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 48% | Draw 31% | Samsunspor 20%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Samsunspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Samsunspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights