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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.02 xG and Konyaspor 1.09 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 20%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Konyaspor 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights