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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kocaelispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Kocaelispor 3-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.73 xG and Kocaelispor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.20 / defence 0.97 against Kocaelispor attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 58% | Draw 24% | Kocaelispor 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 50%, Kocaelispor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Kocaelispor scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights