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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 4-2 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.02 xG and Kayserispor 0.99 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.23 / defence 0.88 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 16%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Kayserispor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights