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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.34 / defence 0.93 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights