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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kasımpaşa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.77 xG, a combined 4.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.42 / defence 1.26, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 57% | Draw 19% | Kasımpaşa 24%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights