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Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Hatayspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.35 xG and Hatayspor 0.84 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Hatayspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 70% | Draw 20% | Hatayspor 10%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 65%, Hatayspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Hatayspor's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights