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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gaziantep FK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 4-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.96 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.32 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.37 / defence 1.03 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 50% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 66%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights