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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 34, as Fenerbahçe and Eyüpspor drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.08 xG and Eyüpspor 0.92 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.30 / defence 0.97 against Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 62% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 13%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 68%, Eyüpspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights