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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Başakşehir.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Başakşehir 3-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.51 xG and Başakşehir 1.18 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Başakşehir attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 42% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 27%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Başakşehir 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Başakşehir's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights