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Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.55 xG and Antalyaspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.22 / defence 0.93 against Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 47% | Draw 30% | Antalyaspor 23%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 69%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights