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Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 23, as Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Samsunspor 1.53 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Samsunspor 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Samsunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights