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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.70 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 1W, Samsunspor 2W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Samsunspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Samsunspor 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Samsunspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / defence 1.217 | Samsunspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.289. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Fatih Karagümrük games / 58 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Samsunspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Samsunspor 80% BTTS from recent games.

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