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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük and Kocaelispor finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Kocaelispor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 31% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 47%, Kocaelispor 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights