🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 10, as Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Kayserispor 1.57 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.70 / defence 1.48 against Kayserispor attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 45%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Kayserispor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.33 PPG, Kayserispor 0.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights