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Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Fatih Karagümrük 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.58 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 47%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 67%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights