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Gaziantep FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gaziantep FK beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.20 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.90 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.78 / defence 1.46 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 22% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 51%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Gaziantep FK 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gaziantep FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.43. Form held, and they took the win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights