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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Galatasaray cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.78 xG and Galatasaray 1.95 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Galatasaray attack 1.24 / defence 0.77, drawn from 18/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 11% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 62%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Galatasaray 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights