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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.89 xG and Başakşehir 1.49 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.60 / defence 1.13 against Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 22% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 51%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Başakşehir 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.75 PPG, Başakşehir 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights