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Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fatih Karagümrük beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Alanyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights