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Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Sivasspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Sivasspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sivasspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights