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Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.05 against Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.17 PPG, Samsunspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights