Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor – Match Report

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Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Samsunspor 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.24 xG and Samsunspor 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Samsunspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 1.30 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 28% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 45%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Samsunspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.64. Form was overturned, with Eyüpspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights