Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.85
1.61
Samsunspor xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.66
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.61 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.