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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Rizespor at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Rizespor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.10 PPG, Rizespor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 4–0 with Eyüpspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Rizespor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Rizespor 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.74 xG and Rizespor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.952 | Rizespor attack 0.979 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 4.76. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Rizespor 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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