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Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Konyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Konyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights