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Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kocaelispor beat Eyüpspor 0-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Kocaelispor attack 0.71 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 23%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Kocaelispor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 42%, Kocaelispor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.92 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kocaelispor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights