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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eyüpspor welcome Kayserispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 0.80 PPG versus Kayserispor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Kayserispor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.856 / defence 0.964 | Kayserispor attack 0.913 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.365. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Eyüpspor games / 50 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Kayserispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kayserispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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