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Dominant Kasımpaşa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Eyüpspor 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.87 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.65 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.10 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 34%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.52 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights