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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet in-form Galatasaray provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Galatasaray fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eyüpspor welcome Galatasaray to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Galatasaray stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Galatasaray haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Galatasaray's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Galatasaray's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Galatasaray have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Eyüpspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–5 with Galatasaray winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Galatasaray have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Eyüpspor trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Galatasaray trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 44% versus Galatasaray 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Galatasaray 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.51 xG and Galatasaray 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.953 | Galatasaray attack 1.093 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 34 Galatasaray games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 30% | Galatasaray 28%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Galatasaray 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Galatasaray (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Galatasaray 60%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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