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Stalemate at Eyüpspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor and Göztepe finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.23 xG and Göztepe 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 27% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 45%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 55%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Göztepe's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.36 PPG, Göztepe 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights