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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Eyüpspor 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 0.97 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.43 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 16% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 54%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights