Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe – Match Report

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Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.34 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.63 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.81, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 27% | Fenerbahçe 43%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Fenerbahçe 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights