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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 25%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.67 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights