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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Eyüpspor 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.19 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Başakşehir win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights