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Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alanyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Alanyaspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights