🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Adana Demirspor 6-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.08 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.43, drawn from 29/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 54% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 24%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eyüpspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights