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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.92 xG and Trabzonspor 1.07 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.64 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 31% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 39%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 27%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.06 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights