Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.62x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.26
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
Sivasspor xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.11 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.