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Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.42 xG and Antalyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 49% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 23%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 28%, Antalyaspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bodrum FK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antalyaspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.14 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights