🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Besiktas Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.42 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Trabzonspor attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 35% | Draw 32% | Trabzonspor 33%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.78 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights