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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beşiktaş and Samsunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş and Samsunspor finished level at 1-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.49 xG and Samsunspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.26 / defence 1.17 against Samsunspor attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 30% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 44%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.71 PPG, Samsunspor 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights