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Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 19%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 49%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights