🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.57 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 49% | Draw 31% | Kasımpaşa 21%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 50%, Kasımpaşa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights